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Wednesday, May 8, 2013

Where's the Ammo at a Decent Price Gone?

It's been awhile since I have posted anything and I felt that it's a good time to post some information based on fact and research to help clear the web and world of all inconsistencies and false rumours....or at the very least, attempt to do so.

Whether you work, play, live, eat and/or breathe in the firearms industry like myself, or if your level of involvement with firearms happens to be just once a year at the beginning of the hunting season when you make your way to the local store to stock up on ammo before heading out to your favorite range to sharpen your skills so you can make the shot to bag the big one...chances are you've been keeping yourself apprised of current ammo prices and inventory levels, the ever changing political climate, current gun laws in your state and quite possibly where to buy what firearms for the best price (even if that "best" price is not ideal).

The firearms industry has made huge leaps in the last 9 years and is accredited with helping to restore a percentage of the US's economy with thousands of new jobs being created each year and the fact that the industries profit growth has climbed higher and faster in the last decade than it has EVER with a substantial amount of that money being put back into local and state economies. Oh and I almost forgot to mention the fact that there a many federal and state taxes associated with the firearms industry that have brought in record tax dollars as well. Not to mention a few thousand state and federal government jobs that have been created the last few years to help accommodate the increases in background checks, federal firearms license applications (renewals and first time applicants), Concealed Handgun Permits processing, and other various firearms license applications (such as Class III NFA licensing). It's almost enough to make one wonder what the hell the liberals and other anti-gun minded individuals are thinking when they present new legislation in hopes to start restricting the number of firearms manufactured in the US as well as those that seek to make all guns completely illegal and a thing of the past. I wonder, what kind of impact would it have on the US economy, GDP, GNP, and the unemployment rate if you completely eliminated a Multi-Billion Dollar domestic industry right now? I can tell you that the results would be so bad that no one can begin to contemplate the aftermath of such an action.

But that's not what I'm here to talk about, this post is dedicated to assembling various research in the hopes of finding an answer to where all of the Low Priced or at the very least, Regular Priced Ammunition has gone. I decided to re-join the NRA when the Feinstein Bill was first mentioned in 2012, after several years of not being a member. I now get their monthly publication, "American Rifleman" as well as a few other monthly periodicals from other parts of the industry. For example, once a month both Firearms Parts, Accessories and Ammo Supplies, Brownells and Cheaper than Dirt send me their newest printings with the most current inventory levels and pricing. I also have been subscribed to a very well known monthly publication, "Guns & Ammo" for a number of years. Besides these printed forms of communication I usually check in with several big name manufacturers and suppliers via the web each day and am in contact with several of their employees via email on a consistent basis. These companies include but are not limited to, Rainier Arms, WMD Guns, Seekins Precision, Midwest Industries Inc, Lone Wolf Distributors, Bushmaster Firearms, Remington Arms, and AR15.com. As you can see I stay informed of all things firearms on a daily basis, after all, it is my hobby, as well as a part-time profession of mine to design, build, and modify custom tactical weapon systems. My knowledge of firearms is highly specialized with a focus primarily on the AR/M4/M16 Weapons System as well as my two favorite handguns of all time, Glocks and 1911s. I own guns that do not fall into these categories and my knowledge of guns outside of these three platforms is vast but I am by no means an expert as I still learn something new with each build or modification I do.

Through my contacts at the above mentioned companies, my readings of the various periodicals mentioned above, as well as the conversations I've had with local gun store owners and just plain gun owners, I have constructed a very highly educated and well researched theory regarding the current run on Gun's, Ammo and Parts. 

With the introduction of the UN Small Arms Treaty and Obama's dedication and vow to the American people, "I will do everything in this office's power [the White House] to ban guns in their entirety across America before the end of the year. [2013]", a panic has been created amongst all red blooded, God fearing, and gun owning Americans (and even those that don't fear God).  Democratic and Republican gun owners alike started cleaning out the ammo shelves at retailers everywhere when talk of the Feinstein Bill Gun Grab (known as FBGG from this point forward) had started. This started a chain reaction of events.  Those that don't normally shoot or buy ammo, the guys and gals who may own a single pistol or grandpa's rifle and dad's old revolver, have started purchasing up as much ammo as they can find.  On top of this, US LE and Military agencies started renewing ammo contracts with the Big 3 (Federal, Remington, and Winchester). These ammo contracts are large and cover large parts of the year if not the decade and most of these agencies were willing to spend your tax dollars to make sure their order took precedence over all other orders by having all ammo shipments expedited.  Essentially, the firearms industry runs on the very basics of Micro-Econ 101, supply goes down when demand goes up, and prices go up to try and alleviate the demand. In our case, the demand has not subsided. When ammo started disappearing and the talk of the FBGG grew as it approached congress, the panic was fueled even more so. Long time gun store owners became millionaires by Christmas, new gun store owners, had grown their businesses as much as 500% by the beginning of 2013 and if you wanted to buy a gun that wasn't in stock at stores, you were looking at a 6 month backorder.  It is a this point, circa Jan. 2013, that ammo prices (when it can be found) have hit record high's for the first time in the history of firearms in America. A box of .45ACP (regularly $25 for 50rds) was selling for double and triple regular price, a box of 9mm (regularly $10 for 50rds) hit $75 a box (inflation of more than 600%) and a box of .223/5.56mm (reg. $8/20rds) could only be found in large 1000rd lots on GunBroker.com for prices well exceeding $1/rd and for those that couldn't afford to buy in bulk, prices were now at $30/box (20rds)! Firearms Manufactures at this point were experiencing increased lead times for supplies that would put a new order shipping out almost 18months down the road.  With the threat of a Gun Ban looming overhead the firearms industry was unsure of what to do and was ultimately faced with two choices: A) Business as usual, we may not be here much longer so just keep on keeping on, or B) Reinvest this increase of revenues into more employees, expand warehouse and manufacturing space so that production can be ramped up to meet demand and ultimately make more $$$$$. In the more liberal states that were passing their own State Gun Bans such as, New York, Illinois, Colorado, and California the firearms manufacturers chose option A. However, in the free states, they chose option B and have not regretted doing so.

If you haven't been into a gun store lately or even looked for ammo there is still really no point in even attempting to.  Here we are 5 months into 2013 and every Wal-Mart across the country still has not a single box of ammo on it's shelves. Of course, their fault (not that it is a fault) is that they didn't raise their prices to curb the purchasing....God Bless Wal-Mart for still selling 9mm at $10/box! Many of the big name chains did not raise prices but instead imposed limits on buying amounts.  Now, don't get me wrong, I am an avid supporter of a Free Market Economy and I believe in Capitalism 110%. I also like to consider myself moderately conservative and a loyal Republican who votes majority Republican if not straight Republican each and every election (sometimes there's a third party candidate I like, but NEVER a liberal). However, no matter how much I despise the fact that when my local WM get's .223 in for $7.95/box and won't let me buy more than 3 boxes at a time, this seems to be the only measure that can help all gun owners get some of the ammo supply.  Now I'm not talking about distributing wealth here, but we are all in this together. Our rights are on the line and I feel that it is down right awful that there has been a significant increase in people buying up all the ammo at the local Cabela's (who also has not raised their ammo prices) then turning around and listing it on GunBroker.com or selling it at their local shop for 20 times the amount they paid for it, just to make a penny off a really bad situation! These people deserve to be shot for their, intuitive money making ideas! No, but seriously, this isn't right, is it capitalism at it's finest? Yes. Is it legal for them to do? Yes. But what are the effects of this buying and selling for double and triple the price paid?

Well, it's clear that the effect is detrimental on the firearms industry.  These people aren't just doing it with ammo, but they are also going online and buying up every last Black Magpul CTR Stock for the AR/M4/M16 Weapon System and then turning around and selling it for double what they paid. They aren't just stopping there, have you tried to buy mags for any of your guns lately? When Brownells or Cheaper than Dirt (known as CTD from here on out) get a shipment of AR Mags in, a few people luck out an get to buy a couple for the regular $17/each but then a few other people place large quantity orders for 1000's of them and then resale them in their store or on their website for $60, $80 and I've even seen Glock 9mm mags going for $100/each (the only ones that you can find instock).  Ultimately, this crooked and scheming mentality will not allow the firearms industry to recover from this hole that we are in.  I guess that statement is partly incorrect as eventually it will recover but it will take a lot longer than it should. These characters, and I will not get into names as you can find them out for yourself, range from large online retailers, to small mom & pop gun shops, to Joe Blow the High School Janitor who uses his entire paycheck to double down on some the bet that he can sell all 1000 Magpul AR-15 PMAGs by next Friday for three times what he paid for them.  And guess what? He does sell them all essentially tripling his paycheck each time. Oh and his personal stash of AR Magazines has grown tremendously for no charge to him, while you have only been able to add two to your collection for a day's wages!  These actions are nothing new though. Every industry experiences this at some point or another, the firearms industry is just more prone to this than any other as any liberal politician can talk of a Gun Ban and it will throw the entire industry into chaos! 

What can YOU do to help fix the prices and low inventory levels throughout the firearms industry?

I know you are not going to want to hear this but, the only sound and reasonable advice I can give is: Quit giving them your money! That's right, cancel that order you placed last night for 500rds of backordered .40S&W ammo from CTD. Don't go down to the gun store tomorrow and buy your wife, mom, dad, uncle, cousins, and all four of your children a different handgun....they don't need it and the FBGG is DEAD! If the majority of gun owners would do this, then the only people purchasing guns, ammo and accessories would be the gun store owners and retailers. This would allow the inventory levels to come back much quicker than anyone thinks now that production has been increased to unprecedented levels unheard of in this country before.  When the shelves are once again full and those gun store owners and retailers purchasing departments are filled with employees sitting around playing Solitare and watching You Tube videos all day at work, they will have to start cutting their prices in order to combat the decreased purchasing levels.  Like I said, its Micro-Econ 101 at it's very basics.  When supply is at overwhelming levels and demand is at it's lowest point (no one is buying and the warehouses and storerooms are full to the brim), then the sales start and the prices have to be decreased to hopefully get customers to start buying again.  If the pattern continues it will eventually fix itself, but not before first destroying a few individuals and businesses...and again that is capitalism at it's finest.  I did see the other day two of the big online ammo retailers dropped their prices on .223/5.56mm ammo by $5 a box! After contacting one of them and inquiring as to what their current on hands were, I was assured that they had enough Pallets of .223 to satiate the current demand for some time.  Even at $5/box less, .223/5.56mm ammo is still more than double its regular price.  Remember, if it's not one of the big 3 ammo manufacturers (Federal, Remington, and Winchester) it's not a Gov't purchased round, so you can't blame it on Obama or anyother Gov't agency, it's our fault and no one elses!

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